Muskoka 70.3 Preview ... A.K.A. My Big Brick Workout

I was not planning on this race but I wanted another half iron for practice before IMFL and a bunch of my club-mates were racing so I decided to enter.  Then I rode the bike course.  Had I ridden the bike course before I paid the hefty $250 price tag, I think I would have passed.  However, I'm going and it's going to be a training day - that is all.  I am not going to kill myself.  It's 8 weeks out from IMFL and I will not jeopardize my "A" race!  If I have to get a DNF - I will and I won't be upset by it!  I

SWIM
I'm in the 4th of 7 waves starting at 8:18am.  Looks like a nice calm and clean lake.  I would like to complete the 1.9km swim in under 40 minutes.  It looks like it will be chilly in the morning so this is good practice for IMFL where the air temps are usually colder than the water!

BIKE
I have ridden the course twice in the past month.  It is 94km, not the usual 90km you find in half iron distances!  It is a beautiful ride that is all climbing and descending.  There is about a 10km section of bad road along South Portage Road which causes significant issues.  In training I have averaged 26.5 kph and 27.3 kph on the course.  I will be happy to average 28kph on this course getting me off the bike in well under 3:30   

RUN
While I have been up there twice, I have not run much of the course.  While we had plans to ride it, we didn't.  And while we talked about driving it, we didn't.  So all I know is by looking at the elevation profile is that my expectations of anything near a 2 hour half marathon are not realistic especially in light of my sucktastic runs lately.  Running off such a tough bike coupled with the nature of the run, I will be happy with a 2:15 run split.

I hear the first transition can be quite long due to a long run up from the swim exit so I'm giving myself 4 minutes for T1 and 2 mins for T2.  So all together I would like to see myself finish around 6:30.  However, I'm promising myself that if I take more time on the bike or the run it is all good as I need to stay healthy for IMFL!